State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) are used to forecast landscape dynamics, including projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections.
STSMs have been applied to a wide range of landscapes and management questions, including forests, rangelands, grasslands, wetlands, aquatic communities and urban areas, over spatial extents ranging from thousands to millions of hectares. Additional details on the STSM approach can be found in the paper by Daniel et al (2016) (also summarized in a 13 minute video).
As part of the CircumArctic Rangifer Monitoring and Assessment Network (CARMA), we are developing a computer simulation model for predicting the effects of climate and development on barren-ground caribou. Details →